Macadamia Market outline and forecast:

Recapping 2023 and looking ahead into 2024.

Farmers are concerned that the current lower prices are an indication of a long-term kill-off or a downward demand for Macadamia Nuts as a product.

Amorentia Nursery has experienced 2 down-turns in the Macadamia Market over the years and have learned to optimise the opportunity through innovation. Now is the time to plant Macadamia trees, to enjoy the upturn when the market stabilises again.

Here’s what we need to know about the current market:

The current market status results from a “Perfect storm”.

While South African production increased by 50% in a short 2-year period, (See Figure 1 presented by SAMAC) the globe encountered rises in inflation, a pandemic, serious shipping blockages and rises in costs, the Ukrainian / Russian war and more specifically relevant to Macadamias, extended Chinese lockdowns. Macadamia nuts could not be channelled through traditional markets effectively and to pivot large volumes quickly, was impossible.

Added pressure; unlike Avocados which are perishable, unsold Macadamia stock can be carried over to a new season, which means we began the 2023 season with surplus supply. Generally, the shelf prices have not come down as retailers hold on to their margins and, in many cases, are still holding stock from the previous season which were bought at the higher prices.

It can take two seasons to create new channels to market and to level-out excess supply, resulting in an increased demand and higher prices. While processors foresee growth in China as macadamias are still cheaper than pecan nuts and pistachios, new products take 18 – 24 months to gain traction. We know that with time, these obstacles will be corrected but while this happens, role-players, especially farmers, need to reduce costs and optimise quality.

Opportunity:
Macadamias make up less than 2% of the world’s fruit nut basket, a strong growth indicator. (See Figure 2 presented by SAMAC).

Generally, snack consumers are more decerning when it comes to choices. Health benefits play a role in decision making and the Macadamia nut is making its mark as a snack of choice. An important trend to note, is the increased global awareness of blood glucose levels, which Macadamia nuts are proven to have a positive impact on.
Amorentia Macadamia Nursery exhibited at IMS (International Macadamia Symposium) 2023. We had the opportunity to interact with members of all facets of the industry, and the general energy, although cautious, was one of optimism, as processors report a steadier flow of product into the traditional channels, and while new products are launched into the market. The creation of a broader scope for our product will have a great impact on future production.

Staying ahead
As growers, we need to consider how our farming practices impact

In conclusion, we foresee expansion on the horizon for the Global Macadamia Market. All indicators point to the turning of a corner, as we begin the slow journey towards stabilised product flow and improving prices to growers. With volumes forecast to increase, as new plantings come into production, Macadamia supply will filter into new arenas as the nut makes its mark as a solid and reliable snack and ingredient product.

The Macadamia story is still in its early chapters and we, at Amorentia, are looking forward to a long fruitful and future.

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