Macadamia Market outline and forecast:

Recapping Macadamia Market 2023

Macadamia Production

The 2023 crop of 77 532 tonnes was 12.6% higher than the 2022 crop of 68 840 tonns.

Farmers were concerned that the lower prices at the start of the 2023 season. There was a dear that it was an indication of a long-term kill-off or a downward demand for Macadamia Nuts as a product.

Amorentia Nursery has experienced 2 down-turns in the Macadamia Market over the years and have learned to optimise the opportunity through innovation.

During a down-turn, farmers should strongly consider planting Macadamia trees, to enjoy the upturn when the markets stabilise again.

Here’s what we need to know about what lead to the 2023 market conditions.

“The Perfect storm”.

While South African production increased by 50% in a short 2-year period, (See Figure 1 presented by SAMAC) the globe encountered rises in inflation, a pandemic, serious shipping blockages and rises in costs, the Ukrainian / Russian war and more specifically relevant to Macadamias, extended Chinese lockdowns. Macadamia nuts could not be channelled through traditional markets effectively and to pivot large volumes quickly, was impossible.

Added pressure; unlike Avocados which are perishable, unsold Macadamia stock can be carried over to a new season, which means we began the 2023 season with surplus supply. Generally, the shelf prices have not come down as retailers hold on to their margins and, in many cases, are still holding stock from the previous season which were bought at the higher prices.

It can take two seasons to create new channels to market and to level-out excess supply, resulting in an increased demand and higher prices. While processors foresee growth in China as macadamias are still cheaper than pecan nuts and pistachios, new products take 18 – 24 months to gain traction. We know that with time, these obstacles will be corrected but while this happens, role-players, especially farmers, need to reduce costs and optimise quality.

2024 is well under way

2024 kicked off with very little to no carry over stock.

Price Comparison 2023 /2024

Average prices for Kernel (Style 4)

2023: 7,03 USD

2024: 7,62 USD

(8% INCREASE)

2023: R123,76

2024: R140, 90

(14% INCREASE)

Average prices for NIS

2023: 2,82 USD

2024: 3,31 USD

2023: R50,06 ZAR

2024: R61,27 ZAR

(22.5% INCREASE)

Opportunity:

Macadamias make up less than 2% of the world’s fruit nut basket, a strong growth indicator. (See Figure 2 presented by SAMAC).

Generally, snack consumers are more decerning when it comes to choices. Health benefits play a role in decision making and the Macadamia nut is making its mark as a snack of choice. An important trend to note, is the increased global awareness of blood glucose levels, which Macadamia nuts are proven to have a positive impact on.

Amorentia Macadamia Nursery exhibited at IMS (International Macadamia Symposium) 2023. We had the opportunity to interact with members of all facets of the industry, and the general energy, although cautious, was one of optimism, as processors report a steadier flow of product into the traditional channels, and while new products are launched into the market. The creation of a broader scope for our product will have a great impact on future production.

In conclusion, we foresee expansion on the horizon for the Global Macadamia Market. All indicators point to the turning of a corner, as we begin the slow journey towards stabilised product flow and improving prices to growers. With volumes forecast to increase, as new plantings come into production, Macadamia supply will filter into new arenas as the nut makes its mark as a solid and reliable snack and ingredient product.

The Macadamia story is still in its early chapters and we, at Amorentia, are looking forward to a long a fruitful and future.

Figure 1

Source: SAMAC

Figure 2